January 6, 2026
For the first time in years, Sacramento’s housing market is starting to feel…normal. Instead of homes selling in 48 hours with 15 offers and buyers waiving every contingency, we’re now seeing more listings, slightly longer days on market, and negotiations that actually involve give and take. With roughly a 3‑month supply of homes on the market, Sacramento is edging away from the extreme seller’s market of the pandemic years and toward something much closer to balance. But what does a 3‑month supply really mean for you if you’re thinking, “Should I buy now?” or “Is this the right time to sell my house?” And how does this shift affect first time buyer strategies and sellers hoping to get top dollar? This in‑depth guide breaks down what a 3‑month supply is, why it matters, what’s driving the change in Sacramento, and how buyers and sellers should adjust their game plans in 2026. What Does “3‑Month Supply” Actually Mean? In real estate, “months of inventory” (or “months of supply”) is one of the clearest ways to understand the balance between buyers and sellers. If no new homes were listed starting today… And buyers kept purchasing homes at the current pace… Months of supply is how long it would take for all existing listings to be sold. Very low inventory (1–2 months) = strong seller’s market. High inventory (6+ months) = strong buyer’s market. Somewhere around 4–6 months is traditionally considered “balanced.” So a 3‑month supply means: Sacramento is no longer in “panic mode” for buyers. But sellers still have a decent amount of leverage. The market is moving toward balance, but hasn’t completely arrived there. In practice, 3 months is a “soft seller’s / emerging balanced” market: buyers have more options and negotiating room, but well‑priced homes still sell quickly. How Sacramento Got Here: From Frenzy to (Relative) Balance Sacramento didn’t move toward balance overnight. The shift has been gradual, driven by several overlapping trends. 1. More Listings Hitting the Market After years of homeowners holding onto ultra‑low 2–3% mortgage rates, more people are finally deciding to list: Life events (job changes, upsizing, downsizing, divorce, retirement). Built‑up equity since 2020, making moves financially possible. Less fear of “Where will I go?” because inventory has improved. The result: more active listings, more variety, and more choices for buyers in nearly every price range. 2. Slower—but Still Solid—Buyer Demand Buyer demand in Sacramento is still healthy, especially compared to many national markets, but it’s no longer overheated: Mortgage rates are higher than the 2020–2021 lows, which sidelines some buyers. Affordability is strained, especially for first time buyers. Some would‑be buyers are waiting, hoping for lower rates or prices. That cools the intensity but doesn’t eliminate demand, especially given Sacramento’s: Strong government and healthcare job base. Ongoing migration from the Bay Area. Relative affordability compared to coastal California. 3. New Construction and Zoning Changes Adding Options Sacramento’s push to encourage “missing middle” housing types has started to bear fruit: Small multi‑unit buildings (duplexes, triplexes, four‑plexes). Homes with ADUs (accessory dwelling units). Townhomes and small‑lot single‑family projects. These don’t flood the market, but they do add incremental supply and more variety for both buyers and small investors. Is a 3‑Month Supply Truly “Balanced”? Technically, 3 months is still a slight seller’s market. But compared to the ultra‑tight conditions of recent years, it feels much more balanced. Here’s how it plays out on the ground: Good homes priced correctly: Still get strong interest and may receive multiple offers. Overpriced or outdated homes: Sit longer and often need price reductions. Buyers: Don’t have to rush into decisions within hours, and can keep contingencies more often. Sellers: Can’t just “name a price” and expect the market to hit it instantly. So while Sacramento hasn’t fully reached the 4–6 month “classic” balanced range, for everyday buyers and sellers it already feels significantly more manageable and reasonable than the frenzy days. What a 3‑Month Supply Means for Buyers If you’re a buyer, especially a first time buyer, this is a very different environment than 2021–2022. Here’s how the 3‑month supply works in your favor—and where challenges remain. 1. More Choices, Less Panic With more inventory: You can see multiple homes that meet your criteria instead of just one. You can focus on the right home, not just the “only” home. You often have time to schedule a second showing before writing an offer. That reduces emotional pressure and helps you make better, more rational decisions. 2. More Negotiation Power In an ultra‑tight seller’s market, buyers often had to: Offer over asking by default. Waive inspections, appraisals, and repairs. Agree to the seller’s timeline with no questions asked In a 3‑month‑supply environment you’re more likely to: Negotiate on price—especially for homes that have been on the market 2–3 weeks or longer. Keep inspection contingencies and ask for repairs or credits. Request closing cost help or rate buydown contributions from the seller. You still need to be realistic—great homes priced well can move quickly—but you have more room to advocate for yourself. 3. The Affordability Catch More inventory doesn’t automatically mean cheap homes. The big affordability challenges in Sacramento remain: Home prices are still high compared to local incomes. Mortgage rates, though off their peak, are still much higher than 2020 levels. Property taxes, insurance costs, and HOA dues on some new builds add to monthly expenses. So even with a 3‑month supply, many buyers still feel squeezed. First time buyers in particular need to be strategic: Use first‑time buyer programs (down payment assistance, closing cost help). Consider “house hacking” (buying a duplex or a home with an ADU and renting the other unit). Look at slightly less “hot” neighborhoods that still fit your needs. Work with the best realtor in Sacramento for creative strategy, not just home tours. 4. More Room for Thorough Due Diligence In a more balanced market, you can: Conduct full home inspections and negotiate repairs. Take time to carefully review disclosures, HOA documents, and neighborhood data. Avoid waiving appraisal contingencies unless you have a very clear plan. That reduces your risk of major surprises after closing. What a 3‑Month Supply Means for Sellers If you’re thinking “Is this the right time to sell my house in Sacramento?” the answer for many owners is still yes—but the strategy has changed. You’re no longer selling in a “just list it and watch the offers roll in no matter what” market. You are, however, selling in a market where: Inventory is still relatively low by historical standards. Demand is still there, especially for well‑priced, move‑in‑ready homes. You can still get strong prices with the right preparation and pricing. Here’s what a 3‑month supply means practically for sellers. 1. Pricing Strategy Matters More Than Ever In a frenzied seller’s market, sellers often “tested” the market with overly aggressive list prices and still got offers. That’s much riskier now. With a 3‑month supply: Buyers are more price‑sensitive and better informed. Overpriced homes sit, then require price cuts, which can spook buyers. Fairly priced homes get the best attention and offers. Working with a skilled local agent to set a realistic list price based on recent comparable sales, current inventory, and current demand is crucial. The best realtor in Sacramento will show you: What similar homes actually sold for—not just what others are asking. How long they took to sell. Whether they needed price reductions. Getting pricing right from the start can be the difference between selling in 10–20 days with strong terms versus sitting for 45+ days and chasing the market down. 2. Condition and Presentation Matter More Too When buyers have more options, they can afford to be pickier. To stand out, your home should: Be clean, decluttered, and well‑staged if possible. Have obvious deferred maintenance addressed (peeling paint, leaky faucets, old carpet). Look great in photos and online listings—your first “showing” is on a screen. You don’t necessarily need a full renovation, but strategic updates can have a big return. Sometimes: Fresh paint and minor cosmetic upgrades. Landscaping clean‑up and curb appeal improvements. Fixing small issues that might derail inspection. Those steps can boost perceived value and help you sell faster, and often for more. 3. Expect Real Negotiations Again With more balance in the market, negotiation is back: Buyers will ask for repairs, credits, or closing cost help. You may see offers with contingencies instead of all‑cash, as‑is bids. You might get fewer offers, but you can still get a strong one. This is where a great agent earns their keep—helping you: Evaluate which offer is truly best (price, terms, contingencies, buyer strength). Decide which repair requests are worth agreeing to. Keep the deal together if surprises pop up during escrow. Your net result (what you actually take home) matters more than the headline list or offer price. 4. Timing Still Matters—but Less Than Before In ultra‑hot markets, timing could make a huge difference. List in early spring and you might see 20 offers; list in late fall and you might see 5. With a 3‑month supply, seasonality still exists, but: Good homes sell year‑round. There is demand in every quarter, just with different flows. The “right time” becomes more about your life than the calendar. If you’re ready to make a move—for a job, a growing family, downsizing, or financial reasons—the current environment can still be very favorable with the right strategy. How This Affects First Time Buyers Specifically First time buyers are often hit hardest in tight markets. A 3‑month supply helps in some ways and still challenges them in others. Where Conditions Are Now Better for First Time Buyers Less competition from dozens of offers on the same home. More ability to keep contingencies and protections. More listings under the median price in certain neighborhoods. Slightly more seller openness to FHA or VA financing. You’re less likely to be completely outgunned by all‑cash offers, especially on homes that aren’t at the absolute hottest price point. Where Challenges Persist Down payments remain a major hurdle with today’s prices. Monthly payments are still high due to price levels and interest rates. Student loans and other debts can limit approval amounts. Affordability in the most desirable neighborhoods is still tough. That’s why strategy, coaching, and creativity matter more than ever. Smart First Time Buyer Strategies in a 3‑Month Supply Market Get fully pre‑approved before shopping, not just pre‑qualified. Consider homes with ADUs or duplexes to create rental income. Don’t ignore “ugly ducklings” with solid bones in good locations. Be flexible on cosmetic preferences and ready to do small upgrades over time. Use first‑time buyer assistance where you qualify. Most importantly, work with an agent who actually enjoys guiding first time buyers, not just chasing luxury listings. How Investors Respond to a More Balanced Sacramento Market Small investors and house hackers pay close attention to inventory and pricing shifts. In a 3‑month‑supply environment: Investors have more listings to analyze and more negotiation room. Cap rates may improve slightly as prices stabilize and rents grow slowly. Properties that need work can often be bought at a discount from tired sellers. At the same time, investors face: Higher financing costs. Tighter underwriting. Rent growth that may not be as fast as home price growth. Many are focusing on: Duplexes, triplexes, and four‑plexes. Homes with ADUs. Neighborhoods poised for growth due to new infrastructure, zoning, or amenities. If you’re a homeowner and your property has strong rental or redevelopment potential, that can be part of how you market it when you sell. Why the Right Local Realtor Matters Even More in a “Balanced” Market It’s tempting to think that as the market moves away from chaos, you don’t need as much professional help. In reality, a more nuanced, mixed market is where a great local expert becomes even more valuable. For buyers, the best realtor in Sacramento can: Help you interpret what 3‑month supply means in your specific price range and neighborhood—some segments still perform like a strong seller’s market. Identify which homes are truly well‑priced versus which are sitting for hidden reasons. Structure offers that protect you while still appealing to sellers. Connect you with lenders, inspectors, and contractors who understand local conditions. For sellers, a top Sacramento agent can: Price based on real data and current buyer behavior, not just hope or outdated comps. Market your home effectively to stand out among more listings. Negotiate skillfully so you don’t give away more than you need to in repairs or credits. Guide you through the entire process so you can actually move on with your life confidently. A 3‑month supply means you can’t rely on the market to do all the work. Strategy and execution matter again. Should You Buy Now or Wait? There is no one‑size‑fits‑all answer, but here’s how to think about it in Sacramento right now. Buying now may make sense if: You’ve run the numbers and can comfortably afford the payment. You plan to stay at least 5–7 years. You value stability and building equity over short‑term timing. You find a home that truly fits your needs, not just your wants. Waiting might make sense if: Your finances aren’t stable or your job situation is uncertain. You have very little emergency savings. You need time to fix credit or pay down debts. You are simply not emotionally ready to commit. In a 3‑month‑supply market, buyers at least have the luxury of thinking this through carefully instead of feeling forced into snap decisions. Should You Sell Now or Hold Off? Similarly, whether to sell my house in Sacramento now depends on your bigger picture. Selling now may make sense if: You have strong equity and a clear next step (buying, renting, moving). Your property is in good shape and marketable. You need to release equity for retirement, relocation, or other goals. You prefer to sell in a still‑favorable environment rather than gambling on future slowdowns. Holding may make sense if: You don’t yet have enough equity to make a move work. Your mortgage rate is ultra‑low and moving would significantly raise your monthly costs. You’re not sure where you want to go next. You’re considering adding value (like an ADU or renovation) before selling. Again, the “right” answer is personal—but a more balanced market gives you more room to choose based on your life, not just market hysteria. Final Thoughts: A Healthier, More Sustainable Sacramento Market So, is Sacramento finally becoming a balanced market? It’s not fully there yet by textbook definitions—but a 3‑month supply signals a much healthier, more sustainable environment for both buyers and sellers than we’ve seen in years. It means: Buyers have more options, more negotiating room, and more time to think. Sellers can still achieve strong prices, but must be realistic, strategic, and prepared. First time buyers have a real shot—if they use the right tools, programs, and guidance. The market is driven more by fundamentals and less by panic. If you’re navigating this landscape—whether as a first time buyer, move‑up buyer, downsizing homeowner, or investor—leaning on local expertise is key. The best realtor in Sacramento can help you read the nuances behind that “3‑month supply” headline and translate it into smart, practical steps tailored to your situation. Whether your next move is to buy, wait, or finally decide “Yes, it’s time to sell my house,” Sacramento’s evolving market offers opportunities—as long as you approach it with clear eyes, good information, and a solid plan.